Sabato Gazes into Political Crystal Ball for Conference

Larry J. Sabato gazed into his crystal ball Saturday at The Council of State Governments Spring Conference in Lexington, Ky., and not only tackled election reform and the primary system—but also managed to offer his predictions for the 2008 presidential election as well.

Sabato’s new book, “A More Perfect Constitution,” offers his solution to the current frontloaded primary system. He advocates writing a lottery-style primary system—where regions take turns going first—into the Constitution.

The way things are right now, he said, just isn’t working. “It’s too much—too much politics,” Sabato said. 

Basically, his solution would do away with Iowa and New Hampshire always being the first to vote. In his system, campaigning wouldn’t start until January of the election year, the first primary would take place in mid-April and the whole election season would last six to seven months.

“That would shorten the election dramatically,” Sabato told the crowd Saturday. “It would also shorten the funds needed to campaign.

Two secretaries of state had the opportunity to rebut Sabato’s lottery and constitutional plan with the National Association of Secretaries of State-endorsed plan for a regional rotating primary system. Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson was first up.

Grayson brought up administrative issues with elections when states know in January what order they will go in. It might force states to have a separate primary election for the presidential vote—instead of combining state primaries with the presidential primary. That option could prove expensive for states to have separate elections, which can cost millions of dollars, Grayson said.

Grayson also advocated keeping Iowa and New Hampshire first. “It’s important to have small states go first,” he said. That allows lesser known candidates—such as the Mike Huckabees of the world—a chance, he said.

The regional rotating primary system—endorsed by CSG—is all about “fixing the back end of the system,” Grayson said.

Pedro Cortes, secretary of state for Pennsylvania, also offered his thoughts on presidential election reform. Even though this year’s election gave his state unprecedented importance, Cortes said, that doesn’t mean the current primary system is the best for all states.

“We look beyond our own state benefits,” he said. “We’re looking for the greater good.”

And with that, Sabato launched into his predictions for the remaining 2008 election. Among the predictions he shared with Saturday’s conference crowd:

• President Bush’s low approval ratings are a disaster for Republicans. “I don’t think there is any way in the world McCain can win unless Bush can get back over 40 (percent approval rating),” Sabato said.
• According to Sabato, Sen. Barack Obama has “gale-force winds at his back” and it will be “easy for him to win.” That doesn’t mean he can’t lose, but there’s enormous momentum going for him, Sabato said.
• Sen. Hillary Clinton will not win the Democratic nomination, according to Sabato. Why is she going on? “She wants to be president,” Sabato said simply. “If she took anything else, it would be a Supreme Court seat.”
• If Sen. John McCain wants to win the presidency, Sabato said that among other things, he needs to distance himself from Bush. McCain should also keep it quiet about the war in Iraq, Sabato added.

--Mikel Chavers