Trends In America: Ten Forces of Change States Can't Ignore

In 2005, CSG published two Trends in America Reports.  The first report highlighted the 10 major forces shaping our society, our political climate and our world, along with implications for state government.  The second report provided examples of state responses to these trends.

Building on those reports, CSG's research group has taken a fresh look at the trends that will be of strategic importance to states in future years.  Our new report will be unveiled in June 2007.  We would like to know what you think about these trends and the ways in which they may affect your state.

What follows is a brief description of each of the 10 trends, in no particular order. Feel free to comment on all or just a few.  Your feedback will help shape our future research and guide us in identifying new and emerging issues within each of the areas.

Demographic Change

The United States, now at 300 million people, is experiencing profound demographic shifts due to increased longevity, smaller family size and an influx of immigrants with higher fertility rates than native-born residents.  These changes, along with dramatic variations in regional growth, will have major impacts on state economies, the demand for public services, the use and management of natural resources, and voting patterns.

Chasing the American Dream

The income gap between the rich and the poor in the United States is now greater than in any other advanced nation, with the middle class confronting increased financial pressures.  Widening social and economic disparities will affect states' ability to finance and facilitate access to public services, employment opportunities, technology, health care and affordable housing.  State officials also will be challenged to address the differing needs and perspectives of culturally diverse populations and demographic differences in levels of civic participation and awareness.

Environmental Gluttony

A growing population, increased pollution and global climate change are threatening our natural environment, economy and way of living.  As water supplies dwindle, states will face tough management, stewardship and water rights decisions.  The Energy Information Administration expects an upward price trend for energy to continue indefinitely.  Thus, states will have to find creative ways to promote renewable energy and conserve resources.  The environmental consequences of energy choices also will need to be addressed.

Health Care: Paying More, Getting Less

U.S. health care costs are skyrocketing, with the cost of health insurance projected to rise at 6.4 percent per year over the next decade.  Although U.S. health spending is significantly higher than the average rate of other industrialized countries, we have higher rates of infant mortality, shorter "health life" expectancies, and more premature and preventable deaths.  Growing numbers of elderly citizens and uninsured individuals will create tremendous pressures on public health insurance programs, fragmented health care delivery systems and health workforces.

Tech Revolution

Technology is upgrading so rapidly that, for every computer put on the market, one existing computer will become obsolete.  Although increasing numbers of states are providing fully executable services online, the digital divide continues to widen along economic, racial and generational lines.  With the volume of e-waste increasing by 3 percent to 5 percent each year, states will be challenged to find hazard-free recycling and disposal options.

Economic Transformation

Now that the shift from a manufacturing-based economy to a service-based, global economy is well underway, many economic transformation issues are emerging.  At their current pace, India and China are set to economically surpass the United States in the next 30-50 years.  The emergence of new economic powers, along with increasing economic, social and political interdependence among countries, will have significant impacts on state economies, labor migration patterns, knowledge and product development, and the ownership and distribution of natural resources.  A fundamental challenge for state policymakers will be to balance public issues and private sector concerns with the need to remain globally competitive.

Educating for Outcomes

The need to maintain a competitive edge in a global economy has accentuated concerns about the lower academic performance of U.S. students relative to other industrialized nations and persisting racial/ethnic and income-based disparities in academic achievement.  Issues of access, instructional quality, learning outcomes and preparedness for the "new economy" work force will have important implications for states' economic and social well-being.

Critical Infrastructure: Cracks in the Foundation

Critical infrastructure is becoming increasingly outmoded, as evidenced by the nation's crumbling water distribution systems, transportation systems and an overextended power grid.  The need to address these problems and to keep pace with rapid changes in telecommunications and other infrastructure technology will have significant financial and regulatory implications for states.

Balance of Power

New technologies and globalization are intensifying pressures to centralize rather than share federal power with state and local governments.  Over the past three years, Congress has shifted an estimated $75 billion in costs to the states.  Unfunded mandates, along with federal preemption of state and local laws and restrictions on state taxation, will have a major impact on future federal-state-local relationships.

America: The Safe and Secure?

The United States faces myriad threats to public safety, domestic security and immigration enforcement.  After a two-decade drop, violent crimes are on the rise.  National Guard troops are increasingly being used as quasi-active duty units - both within and outside the United States.  States also are expected to play an increasing role in arresting and detaining illegal immigrants - duties that they historically have not performed.  A major challenge will be to find ways of addressing diverse domestic and international threats while protecting personal privacy.

Contact the CSG research department to share your views on these trends.

--Jennifer Burnett

Comments

[Zephram Stark]

Regarding "Balance of Power," the article didn't make clear why we need it. What is the purpose of having this little city in the District of Columbia rule over us? We pay it a third of our paycheck and what do we get in return?
...unfunded mandates?
...endless aggressive warfare with no obtainable purpose?
...2.8 trillion dollars of debt accrued in just the last six years?
...blowback from covert operations and sanctions?
...Patriot Act?
...Military Commissions Act?
...Real ID?

We, the citizens of the United States of America, are done with this little city that thinks it rules us and can override our Constitution. We choose to have a Union of Independent States, as specified in our founding document, and we require the assistance of the Council of State Governments to help us in restoring the United States Constitution against the will of its domestic enemies in Washington D.C. As sworn protectors of the Constitution, will you uphold your calling and duty to the citizens of this republic?