2006 Election Trends Analysis

By Keon S. Chi

The results of the 2006 gubernatorial and legislative elections may be characterized as “Democratic control,” not unlike the midterm Congressional elections.

There will be more governor's offices and legislative chambers controlled by Democrats in 2007, reversing the more than decade-old trend of Republican dominance in a majority of the state capitols.

We will have one African-American governor and nine women governors — the largest number of female governors serving at the same time in history.

Democrats will have a majority in both houses of the 23 legislatures, Republicans in 16, and there will be split party control in 10 legislatures.

Here are some highlights of the election results.

Gubernatorial Elections

• In 2006, 36 governor’s offices were up for grabs.  Governor's offices in nine offices were vacated because incumbents were not running: four were term-limited (Arkansas, Colorado, Florida and Nevada); four were retiring (Idaho, Iowa, Massachusetts and New York); and one (Alaska) lost in primary election. Gubernatorial elections in the remaining 14 states will be held in the next three years.

• On Nov. 7, voters in 20 states elected Democratic governors and 16 states chose Republican governors. Nine states (Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Idaho, Maryland and Massachusetts) chose new governors, while the other 27 states re-elected incumbent governors. The only incumbent governor who lost re-election is Gov. Robert Ehrlich, R-Md.

• There will be 28 Democratic governors and 22 Republican governors after the 2006 elections. This new party lineup is an exception to the decade-long trend. For the first time since 1994, when Republican governors outnumbered Democratic governors 29 to 19 with two Independents, there will be more Democratic governors, six, than Republican chief executives. Democratic governors outnumbered Republican governors from 1971 to 1994, while Republican governors maintained a majority of the governor’s offices between 1995 and 2005.

When looking at the aftermath of the 2006 legislative elections by region,
o The East will have seven Democratic governors and three Republican governors;
o The Midwest region will have six Democratic governors and five Republican governors;
o In the Southern region there will be eight Democratic and eight Republican governors; and
o The Western region will have seven Democratic and six Republican governors. 

• One new female governor (Sarah Palin, R-Alaska) will join the other eight  incumbent governors: Janet Napolitano, D-Ariz., Jodi Rell, R-Conn.; Ruth Ann Minner, D-Del.; Linda Lingle, R-Hawaii; Kathleen Sebelius, D-Kan.;  Kathleen Blanco, D-La.; Jennifer Granholm, D-Mich.; Christine Gregoire , D-Wash.  We will have the largest number of women governors ever in 2007. There were eight female governors going into the 2006 elections. Historically viewed, a total of 29 females, including Gov. Sarah Palin, will have served as governors: 18 Democrats and 11 Republicans. (The 22 states that have elected female governors are Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Kansa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Washington and Wyoming.)

• For the first time since Gov. L. Douglas Wilder (D) served in Virginia between 1990 and 1994, Deval Patrick (D-Mass.) becomes the first and the only African-American governor as a result of the 2006 gubernatorial elections. Other than Gov. Bill Richardson (D-N.M.), there will be no other governors with Hispanic or Asian-American ethnic background. In the past, there were four governors with Asian background: Gov. Gary Locke (D-Wash.), George Aryoshi (D-Hawaii), John Waihee (D-Hawaii) and Benjamin Cayetano (D-Hawaii).

Legislative Elections

• In 2006, nearly 6,200 (or 84 percent) of the total number of legislative seats (7,382) were up for grabs. Of those available seats, 268 seats (192 house members and 76 senators) became vacant due to term limits in 13 states. The states with term limits are Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma and South Dakota. More than 130 legislative leaders – speakers, presidents, majority and minority leaders and committee chairs - were included in the vacant legislative seats.

• Before the 2006 elections, legislatures in 20 states were controlled by Republicans, 19 by Democrats and 10 were split between the two political parties. After the 2006 elections, Democrats will control both houses of the legislatures in 23 states; Republicans in 16 states and 10 legislatures will have split control.

A Regional Look

• In the East region, Democrats will control eight senates and eight houses, and Republicans will dominate two senates and two houses. (Pennsylvania’s house has 102 Republicans and 101 Democrats. But there will be recount for one or two seats, according to the House Clerk’s office.)
• In the Midwest region, Democrats will have a majority in four senates and five houses. Republicans will control six senates and five houses. Nebraska’s unicameral legislature (senate) is non-partisan.
• In the Southern region, seven senates will have a Democratic majority and eight will have a Republican majority. Oklahoma’s senate has a tie. Ten of the Southern house chambers will be controlled by Democrats, and six by Republican.
• In the Western region, six senate chambers will be controlled by Democrats, and the other six by Republicans. Montana’s senate has a tie, 25D-25R. Seven house chambers will be controlled by Democrats and six by Republicans.

State legislative chambers switching party control following the 2006 elections are as follows:
o In the East, New Hampshire is the only state switching party control in both chambers– from 8D-16R to 14D-10R in the senate and from 149D-247R-4I to 240D, 160R in the house.

In the Midwest, six legislative chambers in five states switched from Republican control to Democratic control:
 Indiana House from 48D-52R to 51D-49R
 Iowa Senate from 25D-25R to 30D-20R
 Iowa House from 49D-51R to 54D-46R
 Michigan House from 50D-58R to 58D-52R
 Minnesota House from 66D-68R to 85D to 49R
 Wisconsin Senate from 14D-19R to 18D-15R

The South has no chambers switching party control. Oklahoma’s Senate has a tie.

In the West region, Montana’s house changed from 50D-50R to 49D-50R-1I. Oregon’s Senate switched from 27D-33R to 31D-29R.

• Nationwide, there will be approximately 300 more Democrats compared to the pre-election figures. There were five more Democratic legislators than Republicans. This result signifies a change in partisan control of state legislatures. In the past 10 years or so, the gap between the numbers of Democratic legislators and Republican legislators was steadily narrowing. The 2002 and 2004 state legislative elections resulted in an almost even number of both party members.  Democratic legislators outnumbered Republican legislators by almost twice as much between 1954 and 1994.

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*This election analysis is based on available data as of 5 p.m., EDT, Nov. 8, 2006 and will be updated when completed information is available.

Keon S. Chi is editor-in-chief of The Book of the States published by The Council of State Governments. Audrey Wall and other CSG staffers assisted the author with data collection.